Adani Power Ltd., listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), has been among India’s most widely followed shares in the energy sector. In mid-September 2025, the stock jumped nearly 9 percent on one trading session to a high of ₹687. The rally has triggered renewed buying and prompted analysts to raise their target prices higher, with some targeting levels as high as ₹818 in the short term.

In this blog, we’ll try to find out the factors behind Adani Power’s bullish momentum, the fundamentals supporting its valuation, and what investors should consider when evaluating its share price target on the NSE.

Recent Surge and Market Sentiment

Adani Power’s recent price run has been driven by a mix of solid fundamentals, positive regulatory results, and savvy corporate moves. The share has risen more than 30 percent in the past six months, beating broader indices and most of its sector contemporaries.

On September 19, 2025, the share surged 9 percent intraday, powered by three key drivers:

1. Morgan Stanley’s Overweight Rating: The international brokerage upgraded Adani Power, stating that it has a commanding position in coal-fired power generation and lofty expansion plans.

2. SEBI Clearance: The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) issued a clean chit to Adani Group firms in relation to previous charges, eliminating a significant overhang on investor sentiment.

3. Stock Split Declaration: Adani Power announced its first-ever stock split, to increase liquidity and make the shares more friendly to the retail investors.

These events have formed a perfect storm of optimism, sending the stock into a new valuation space and encouraging analysts to upgrade share price targets.

Expansion Plans and Capacity Growth

Adani Power is India’s biggest private coal-fired independent power producer, with 18.15 GW of operational capacity. It is looking to raise this to 41.9 GW by FY32, almost 2.5 times its existing portfolio. This would comprise 23.7 GW of construction in progress, supported by a planned investment of $22 billion, which may increase to $27 billion including cost overruns.

This aggressive growth is likely to substantially enhance the market share of the company in coal-based power generation, raising its share from 8 percent in FY25 to 15 percent by FY32. This kind of growth is expected to propel revenue, profitability, and shareholder value in the long term.

Financial Projections and Valuation Metrics

Morgan Stanley’s report estimates Adani Power’s EBITDA to grow threefold to FY33 at ₹67,200 crore. This is a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17 percent between FY25 to FY33. Net profit is estimated to increase from ₹11,740 crore in FY26 to ₹15,316 crore by FY28. Revenue has been projected to grow from ₹55,015 crore in FY26 to ₹70,057 crore by FY28.

Operating margins are likely to remain healthy, with EBITDA going up from ₹21,305 crore in FY25 to ₹30,453 crore in FY28. These numbers reflect healthy financials and a scalable business model, which make Adani Power a good long-term bet.

Regulatory Clarity Boosts Confidence

Among Adani Power’s greatest challenges in recent years has been the cloud cast by charges leveled by US-based short-seller, Hindenburg Research. The charges of stock manipulation and accounting fraud had brought a dramatic fall in Adani Group shares in the beginning of 2023.

However, SEBI’s final order in September 2025 found no evidence of wrongdoing. The regulator cleared Gautam Adani, Rajesh Adani, and several Adani Group companies, stating there was no fraud, misuse of funds, or falsification of records. This regulatory clarity has won back the confidence of the investors and removed a major risk factor from the stock’s outlook.

Stock Split and Retail Participation

Adani Power’s proposals for a 1:5 stock split have also contributed to the positive mood. The September 22, 2025, is the cut-off date for eligibility. The action will raise the number of outstanding shares and reduce the face value, making the stock more available to retail investors.

Historically, stock splits have been used to increase liquidity and attract new investors, especially in growth sectors. Given Adani Power’s robust fundamentals and growth pattern, the split can serve to become a catalyst for sustained long-term momentum.

Technical Outlook and Price Target

Technically, Adani Power has broken out of crucial resistance points and is presently trading in a rising channel. The Relative Strength Index of the stock continues to be in a good range. This shows that there is scope for further movement upwards without going into overbought territory.

Analysts are now looking at a near-term target of ₹818, which is a 20 to 25 percent appreciation over current levels. If the company is able to execute on its expansion plans and maintain margins, longer-term goals could be in the range above ₹900 by FY26.

Risks and Considerations

While the outlook is upbeat, investors must remain alert to possible risks:

• Execution Risk: High-capacity expansion is associated with execution risks, including delays and cost escalation
• Regulatory Adjustments: Any change in energy or environmental policy may affect coal-based power generators
• Leverage Level: Adani Power has de-levered substantially, but further capex may strain the balance sheet unless managed carefully
• Market Uncertainty: Systemic market corrections or geopolitical tensions may impact sentiment and valuations

Investor Strategy

For long-term investors, Adani Power has a compelling growth story backed by strong fundamentals, regulatory certainty, and expansionist policy. The recent rally in the stock and near-term stock split make it a potential accumulation candidate, particularly for investors who want to ride India’s expanding energy demand.

Short-term traders can look for opportunities in momentum plays, especially around events of significance such as earnings releases, capex announcements, and regulatory breakthroughs.

Final Thoughts

Adani Power’s 2025 performance on the NSE is that of a company which has ridden through controversy, bet big on expansion, and come out stronger. With the analysts setting a share price target of ₹818 and more, the stock is a high-potential bet in the energy sector in India.

As ever, investors need to match their strategy to their risk appetite and investing capacity. But for those looking for exposure to growth driven by infrastructure and the energy transition, Adani Power is a stock to keep close tabs on.